This summer, headlines have been filled with discussions about the rising cost of beef, with some analysts suggesting that loyal consumers are “to blame” for stubbornly high prices. But what if the story isn’t about blame at all?
What if the real story is about resilience, and the vital role consumers play in helping cyclical industries recover?
The Other Side of Price Pressure
When supply chains tighten, weather disrupts production, or costs rise, prices inevitably follow. This is especially true in agriculture, where producers often face multi-year cycles shaped by unpredictable inputs like drought, feed costs, and herd size. In the case of Canadian beef, we are just beginning to see the impacts of a multi-year drought ease, but the supply response takes time.
Recent Canfax data shows that the cost of raising a single calf has risen by 30 percent over the last five years. Herd sizes have contracted. And yet, thanks to strong consumer demand, the cycle is beginning to turn.
Here’s what doesn’t always make the headlines: every time a consumer chooses Canadian beef, whether it’s a striploin on a summer grill or brisket in a winter slow cooker, they are contributing to the recovery of the supply chain. That support ripples outward. Retail demand keeps processors operating. Processors create room in feedlots. Feedlots start buying calves again. And producers gain the confidence to expand herds.
This Isn’t Just a Beef Story
At Prime Capital, we see these dynamics across many sectors. Agriculture is just one example of how long-term investment, patient strategy, and end-user participation all contribute to recovery and ultimately to price normalization.
We often talk about riding the cycle, but it’s worth remembering what that really means. Cycles are not just numbers on a chart. They are lived realities for producers, investors, lenders, and customers alike. Market correction isn’t a flip of a switch. It’s a chain reaction that starts at the edges and works its way back to the center.
In many cases, consumers, just by continuing to show up, are the spark that gets it going.
Thanking the Unsung Market Participant
From our vantage point in private capital, we tend to focus on macro indicators, capital flows, and return expectations. But sometimes it’s worth zooming out.
Yes, strategic investors fuel innovation. Yes, lenders support working capital when producers are stretched thin. Yes, policy plays a role. But the humble purchase, the brisket bought on a Friday afternoon or the oxtail chosen for Sunday dinner, is what keeps entire industries moving.
So, hats off to the Canadian consumer. You are not to blame for high prices. You are part of the reason they eventually come back down.
Final Thought: Cycles Reward the Patient
In agriculture, in capital markets, and in business, one truth holds. Cycles reward those who stay the course. Whether you are investing in ranchland, technology, or early-stage companies, the best outcomes come when decisions are grounded in long-term thinking, not short-term volatility.
Supporting producers when it is hardest, trusting the cycle when it’s slowest, and staying curious when it’s easiest to disengage — those are the hallmarks of durable success.
